* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 61 61 56 50 43 40 37 34 32 29 26 23 21 17 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 47 39 33 29 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 48 39 33 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 31 28 20 19 19 24 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 241 231 221 233 207 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.6 25.7 24.9 22.8 20.6 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 132 112 105 92 86 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 119 101 94 84 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.7 2.4 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 54 60 63 62 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 32 32 32 26 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 137 133 115 108 101 61 105 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 40 56 77 127 95 115 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 17 31 24 20 30 -8 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 144 17 -74 -23 -77 -219 -237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.7 28.4 30.7 34.3 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 78.6 79.9 81.2 82.5 83.8 81.9 77.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 15 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 62 40 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -10. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.5 77.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.7% 8.6% 8.2% 5.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 47 39 33 29 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 60 59 60 46 38 32 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 60 57 56 42 34 28 24 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 42 36 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT