* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 66 67 61 54 42 36 29 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 57 39 34 29 28 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 66 59 39 34 29 28 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 23 25 29 28 18 19 20 38 46 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 4 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 256 240 235 246 215 244 196 203 217 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.2 25.1 22.9 20.6 17.7 13.6 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 132 133 127 107 93 86 81 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 118 120 114 96 85 81 77 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -52.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 52 54 64 61 67 64 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 31 30 32 27 23 20 23 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 137 133 131 130 114 91 59 96 158 225 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 34 54 24 52 107 102 127 94 96 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 18 18 27 13 25 -31 -73 -22 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 461 349 239 106 -20 -6 -63 -252 -210 -47 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.9 28.3 30.6 34.5 39.4 44.5 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 76.5 77.7 79.0 80.3 82.7 83.9 82.2 77.4 69.5 59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 16 26 35 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 44 55 63 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -9. -14. -22. -25. -27. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -3. -9. -15. -12. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 1. -6. -18. -24. -31. -36. -41. -44. -47. -49. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.7 75.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 14.6% 9.4% 9.1% 6.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.9% 3.7% 3.2% 2.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/09/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 66 57 39 34 29 28 29 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 54 36 31 26 25 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 49 31 26 21 20 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 41 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT