* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 59 60 62 57 49 38 34 31 28 25 23 22 20 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 59 60 44 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 60 61 44 32 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 28 23 24 27 21 16 17 32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -4 -2 -2 -5 -3 0 -1 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 222 245 250 233 245 213 234 201 209 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.8 27.4 27.8 27.5 27.7 24.3 22.1 20.4 17.3 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 129 134 130 134 101 89 85 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 106 113 118 115 119 90 80 80 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 50 51 52 55 62 63 69 63 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 27 28 29 30 31 26 22 19 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 145 146 137 130 92 89 50 83 119 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 32 22 35 45 55 150 96 118 96 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 3 7 10 34 18 27 -11 -66 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 591 501 392 283 77 -50 -157 -198 -107 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.5 29.0 31.3 34.5 39.0 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.1 75.0 76.1 77.2 79.5 82.2 83.3 80.9 76.3 70.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 24 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 18 28 36 36 61 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -9. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. -3. -9. -15. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 7. -1. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.6 73.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.6% 7.9% 7.6% 5.2% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 57 59 60 44 33 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 56 40 29 25 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 51 35 24 20 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 43 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT