* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 60 63 61 54 46 39 37 34 31 28 27 25 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 60 53 36 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 54 57 50 35 29 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 22 27 21 28 20 22 9 24 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 217 228 252 252 236 219 226 245 211 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.7 26.8 27.4 27.9 26.8 25.3 23.1 20.8 19.7 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 121 122 129 135 122 108 92 84 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 107 113 118 109 97 83 78 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.7 1.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 49 52 56 62 65 67 66 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 26 27 30 31 28 23 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 132 150 146 139 117 89 72 78 80 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 39 19 15 23 29 70 146 77 126 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 -5 3 5 23 25 23 8 -4 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 691 581 481 382 178 -33 -81 -123 -171 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.2 28.2 29.9 32.2 36.2 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.2 76.2 78.3 81.0 82.6 82.4 78.8 72.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 11 12 10 17 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 15 19 29 38 36 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 3. -4. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 18. 16. 9. 1. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.7 72.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 8.7% 6.3% 6.2% 4.2% 7.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 2.6% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 55 60 53 36 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 56 49 32 26 24 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 50 43 26 20 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT