* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 51 56 59 56 50 47 44 43 36 19 18 19 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 51 56 44 38 30 28 27 30 21 23 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 42 43 45 49 52 43 36 30 28 27 34 35 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 17 18 19 21 26 18 15 12 15 21 23 40 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 0 3 -3 -2 0 0 2 0 2 13 19 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 256 236 223 232 258 242 238 226 270 220 217 212 239 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.9 27.4 28.2 27.5 26.4 24.5 22.3 20.7 19.6 20.3 12.5 4.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 130 123 129 139 130 118 101 88 84 84 88 74 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 113 109 114 123 116 104 89 79 78 80 84 73 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.2 -49.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 54 52 53 58 63 66 63 55 55 41 48 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 22 24 25 27 28 26 22 20 19 22 21 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 153 145 143 139 150 137 121 97 79 65 54 45 50 137 149 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 34 43 31 17 19 19 47 107 77 61 96 61 118 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 4 1 4 13 21 14 3 -6 -18 -25 160 106 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 810 800 686 571 362 144 -75 22 -76 -22 -5 193 -24 103 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.8 27.4 28.8 30.3 32.2 35.4 39.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.4 72.0 73.1 74.3 76.4 78.6 81.1 82.9 83.0 81.3 76.9 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 18 30 37 39 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 14 26 42 51 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -7. -9. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 16. 10. 7. 4. 3. -4. -21. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.8 70.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 48 51 56 44 38 30 28 27 30 21 23 22 24 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 49 54 42 36 28 26 25 28 19 21 20 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 44 49 37 31 23 21 20 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 36 41 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT