* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 49 53 57 59 52 48 42 36 31 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 49 53 50 37 34 30 27 25 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 47 49 50 38 36 35 29 31 33 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 19 21 23 24 23 24 16 15 10 27 32 42 58 93 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 0 0 2 -2 -3 -2 1 2 1 2 12 17 8 19 SHEAR DIR 277 246 251 244 228 241 247 242 222 248 224 215 208 219 236 256 280 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 27.9 27.7 27.6 25.6 25.1 23.3 21.1 21.1 21.3 12.0 7.9 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 132 129 121 136 133 132 110 104 93 86 89 93 74 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 114 113 106 121 117 118 98 90 83 80 85 89 73 71 71 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.2 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 57 55 48 51 54 55 50 50 50 46 42 47 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 20 24 24 27 27 22 19 16 15 14 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 150 152 141 142 134 143 135 112 95 68 81 33 54 50 110 9 131 200 MB DIV 23 36 36 26 19 30 46 24 78 61 47 43 48 75 111 -13 -65 700-850 TADV 7 2 4 7 7 9 10 20 12 7 -8 -20 -35 -16 149 -91 -36 LAND (KM) 738 784 819 770 684 443 215 -14 -7 98 5 -29 -8 229 12 459 1430 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.8 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.8 71.4 72.3 73.2 75.6 77.9 80.2 82.7 84.1 83.8 81.4 76.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 11 10 11 10 6 10 20 31 41 48 52 51 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 17 19 9 34 46 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -15. -23. -35. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 4. 4. -4. -9. -14. -16. -16. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 12. 8. 2. -4. -9. -15. -29. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 70.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.9% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 45 49 53 50 37 34 30 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 47 51 48 35 32 28 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 42 46 43 30 27 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 39 36 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT