* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 63 66 66 65 60 57 49 41 37 29 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 63 66 53 42 33 29 27 27 23 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 51 56 59 61 50 40 41 30 28 31 32 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 9 16 15 19 24 21 20 11 11 20 29 39 37 62 95 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 -1 5 -6 -1 -4 -1 5 0 -5 2 12 10 9 SHEAR DIR 269 247 240 249 237 213 250 234 243 235 286 220 217 224 232 246 268 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 28.0 27.5 26.2 24.6 23.0 20.9 19.3 20.5 14.1 9.8 6.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 129 125 120 137 130 116 102 91 84 82 88 76 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 114 113 108 106 121 115 103 89 80 77 78 85 74 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 59 60 53 51 56 61 65 60 58 60 56 54 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 21 21 22 25 27 27 27 26 23 22 20 19 20 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 146 145 151 133 133 143 133 121 89 70 45 30 31 21 40 63 49 200 MB DIV 54 23 34 40 61 33 28 37 32 44 46 50 61 78 101 49 -8 700-850 TADV 8 8 2 5 6 14 7 11 16 11 1 -12 -21 -83 -84 -168 -22 LAND (KM) 694 749 803 867 847 625 344 134 -58 21 -8 -148 -56 166 31 -45 766 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.2 28.2 27.2 26.9 27.6 28.7 30.1 31.9 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.7 70.3 71.0 71.6 73.9 76.6 78.7 81.0 82.9 84.0 82.8 79.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 11 11 10 11 9 8 15 25 36 42 44 42 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 15 13 8 14 36 51 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -16. -22. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. -0. -2. -6. -9. -7. -8. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 26. 25. 20. 17. 9. 1. -3. -11. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.9 69.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.8% 9.0% 7.8% 0.0% 9.0% 9.7% 10.9% Logistic: 2.5% 11.7% 7.1% 1.8% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.5% 5.4% 3.2% 0.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 53 58 63 66 53 42 33 29 27 27 23 22 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 49 54 59 62 49 38 29 25 23 23 19 18 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 48 53 56 43 32 23 19 17 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 44 47 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT