* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL172022 11/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 51 56 62 67 69 69 65 63 58 52 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 51 56 62 67 69 45 33 33 26 29 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 49 53 57 60 61 41 31 32 31 32 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 8 5 11 18 20 18 19 23 17 14 9 19 27 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 2 0 0 3 -3 -7 -3 -1 0 -1 0 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 278 264 229 243 222 225 232 251 237 259 232 218 220 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.4 27.6 27.8 27.5 25.4 24.1 22.4 20.4 18.7 18.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 129 125 118 131 134 131 106 97 89 83 81 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 117 112 108 103 115 118 116 92 85 80 78 78 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 57 60 56 46 53 54 60 62 64 63 65 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 20 21 22 25 26 26 26 23 23 22 20 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 148 146 151 138 131 145 130 98 80 40 52 64 74 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 57 38 46 33 56 37 47 21 45 52 71 60 70 86 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 3 3 10 18 20 8 10 10 14 -3 -7 -83 -87 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 636 694 763 837 912 759 508 330 41 -79 -68 12 -22 44 188 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 10 10 10 11 6 7 11 19 29 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 20 13 10 2 34 32 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -0. -2. -6. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 16. 22. 27. 29. 29. 25. 23. 18. 12. 8. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.2 68.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.9% 9.1% 7.7% 5.6% 8.9% 9.8% 11.7% Logistic: 2.5% 10.4% 6.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.1% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172022 NICOLE 11/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 49 51 56 62 67 69 45 33 33 26 29 25 25 25 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 48 53 59 64 66 42 30 30 23 26 22 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 47 53 58 60 36 24 24 17 20 16 16 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 43 48 50 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT