* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 11/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 52 59 63 66 70 69 62 56 53 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 52 59 63 66 70 54 40 38 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 44 49 55 59 61 61 48 36 40 41 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 15 7 3 6 14 19 18 22 13 12 10 12 14 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 6 4 -2 5 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 3 1 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 229 298 344 227 234 210 236 241 222 212 317 204 217 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.5 27.8 27.4 27.8 25.0 23.1 22.1 19.8 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 132 127 119 134 129 133 104 92 90 86 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 119 116 115 111 105 119 113 116 91 82 83 82 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 65 64 64 55 49 54 57 57 60 63 61 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 22 22 27 27 27 29 27 23 20 19 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 140 142 147 149 136 156 151 134 104 83 51 73 105 99 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 46 52 45 61 57 55 45 38 61 94 31 74 87 97 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 9 4 4 5 6 11 2 16 11 10 2 1 -31 -55 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 603 660 718 779 911 698 452 223 64 -42 -17 23 12 231 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 8 9 10 11 9 8 8 9 19 34 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 29 27 22 17 10 4 33 37 59 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 384 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. -2. -6. -8. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 24. 28. 31. 35. 34. 27. 21. 18. 18. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 67.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 11/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 11.3% 13.7% Logistic: 1.6% 7.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.3% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.6% 3.9% 4.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 11/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 11/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 45 47 52 59 63 66 70 54 40 38 34 35 35 36 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 48 55 59 62 66 50 36 34 30 31 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 42 49 53 56 60 44 30 28 24 25 25 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 39 43 46 50 34 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT