* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 11/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 48 55 63 69 74 77 81 73 67 63 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 48 55 63 69 74 77 81 58 39 39 38 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 46 53 59 64 66 64 47 35 39 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 14 8 4 13 13 22 17 23 9 12 7 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 0 4 3 2 0 6 -1 0 -1 0 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 202 236 287 353 242 204 225 245 243 189 246 307 233 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 24.5 24.0 27.4 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 136 135 135 131 131 134 142 136 127 99 97 133 121 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 122 119 119 114 115 120 127 121 112 86 86 124 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 1 3 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 70 68 68 64 50 50 56 57 60 60 63 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 20 22 23 26 28 29 31 33 27 24 21 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 144 135 137 144 159 142 156 159 130 109 55 86 60 78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 63 48 55 50 46 65 69 59 30 70 41 54 66 72 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 10 4 4 5 10 1 8 16 11 11 -5 8 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 506 582 626 680 806 843 550 340 165 22 -37 -60 151 165 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 9 8 10 13 9 9 9 5 8 23 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 50 34 28 25 15 15 29 52 47 29 0 0 35 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 17. 7. 2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 39. 42. 46. 38. 32. 28. 27. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 66.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 11/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 11/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 11/06/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 48 55 63 69 74 77 81 58 39 39 38 38 38 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 45 52 60 66 71 74 78 55 36 36 35 35 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 46 54 60 65 68 72 49 30 30 29 29 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 44 50 55 58 62 39 20 20 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT