* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 11/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 39 44 52 61 66 72 74 75 75 68 61 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 35 39 44 52 61 66 72 62 56 56 50 36 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 46 52 48 45 44 42 34 40 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 21 21 17 10 11 21 26 23 22 11 8 11 6 14 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 0 -1 -7 0 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 6 13 SHEAR DIR 227 213 198 222 249 227 201 198 228 231 266 228 272 220 251 209 238 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.6 26.3 26.4 26.0 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.3 24.4 26.4 24.9 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 147 137 134 118 118 116 130 126 125 123 117 104 124 113 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 137 128 123 105 103 105 119 115 110 104 103 95 119 111 90 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -55.7 -54.7 -54.1 -52.5 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 1 1 3 3 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 71 65 59 49 42 40 45 48 52 52 48 35 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 18 19 20 23 26 27 31 31 32 31 27 23 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 143 145 127 126 100 102 123 107 121 121 94 68 49 41 54 96 200 MB DIV 96 116 82 57 57 34 39 45 56 42 16 29 31 48 46 5 4 700-850 TADV 21 21 16 11 6 3 4 -1 6 5 2 7 1 1 19 -4 31 LAND (KM) 233 378 520 641 784 996 743 640 330 -40 115 202 76 -2 264 554 462 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.3 29.0 30.2 29.6 28.3 27.1 26.5 26.7 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.2 68.4 70.7 73.5 77.1 80.6 83.4 84.5 83.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 13 10 16 17 15 9 3 10 18 29 39 51 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 62 31 22 1 2 0 21 14 13 6 1 0 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 14 CX,CY: 2/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 19. 20. 20. 18. 11. 5. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 31. 36. 42. 44. 45. 45. 38. 31. 27. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 66.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 11/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 11/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 11/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 35 39 44 52 61 66 72 62 56 56 50 36 36 37 39 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 50 59 64 70 60 54 54 48 34 34 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 52 57 63 53 47 47 41 27 27 28 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 42 47 53 43 37 37 31 17 17 18 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT