* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 30 40 49 59 72 85 95 105 106 106 97 89 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 30 40 49 59 72 85 89 98 99 99 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 27 30 35 43 54 68 76 85 86 79 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 30 28 24 14 10 5 7 3 5 4 11 19 17 37 42 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 -3 1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 6 7 4 10 SHEAR DIR 48 47 43 44 43 353 8 314 323 308 112 195 196 196 187 215 222 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.9 28.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 169 169 167 164 166 172 172 172 171 171 167 165 168 143 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 163 169 169 167 163 165 169 168 168 166 155 149 146 148 126 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 69 69 70 69 70 72 74 74 74 73 66 59 54 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 10 9 11 13 16 21 26 28 33 34 38 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 5 11 24 20 47 31 34 38 49 53 78 107 125 98 75 200 MB DIV 64 34 27 52 52 36 80 49 74 75 100 83 105 121 139 110 118 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -2 0 0 1 3 3 7 4 4 2 1 -11 3 13 LAND (KM) 229 218 218 220 225 363 239 184 256 292 102 37 212 166 1 -6 140 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 52 78 83 73 81 51 77 73 74 91 81 74 43 74 52 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 7. 13. 16. 21. 21. 24. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 10. 19. 29. 42. 55. 66. 75. 76. 76. 67. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 67.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.90 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 10.4% 40.6% Logistic: 2.2% 7.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1.9% 8.2% 38.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 14.1% Consensus: 1.4% 6.1% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.2% 6.3% 31.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 30 40 49 59 72 85 89 98 99 99 54 52 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 30 40 49 59 72 85 89 98 99 99 54 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 28 38 47 57 70 83 87 96 97 97 52 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 23 33 42 52 65 78 82 91 92 92 47 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT