* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 32 37 42 49 58 72 87 100 107 109 104 100 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 32 37 42 49 58 72 87 100 107 109 104 100 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 28 30 34 40 50 65 79 88 89 78 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 29 25 24 19 8 13 12 15 9 9 7 9 19 21 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 2 3 6 0 -4 -5 -4 -6 -3 3 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 42 48 43 36 33 355 7 348 347 342 278 253 230 219 201 213 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 165 168 169 165 167 172 172 172 171 171 167 168 162 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 160 165 168 169 165 167 170 168 168 166 157 150 147 140 136 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.4 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 72 70 71 71 70 71 72 76 74 76 76 69 64 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 13 16 21 26 32 35 41 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 8 7 9 15 37 44 36 32 39 45 66 106 121 114 138 200 MB DIV 70 78 52 39 66 61 79 64 34 82 104 95 103 106 110 72 45 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 2 -3 0 -1 4 6 17 1 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 190 217 220 220 247 318 267 213 239 366 182 11 136 267 356 292 212 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 57 80 85 84 54 70 66 72 105 110 141 163 132 49 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -1. 6. 12. 19. 22. 26. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 12. 19. 28. 42. 57. 70. 77. 79. 74. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 66.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.8% 7.7% 5.8% 4.3% 8.5% 10.7% 22.6% Logistic: 1.8% 6.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 4.5% 22.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 3.3% 2.1% 1.5% 3.5% 5.4% 15.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 29 32 37 42 49 58 72 87 100 107 109 104 100 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 32 37 42 49 58 72 87 100 107 109 104 100 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 29 34 39 46 55 69 84 97 104 106 101 97 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 28 33 40 49 63 78 91 98 100 95 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT