* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 53 58 66 77 91 95 99 100 105 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 53 58 66 77 91 95 99 100 105 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 31 35 39 45 53 62 70 78 81 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 28 26 24 16 14 15 14 15 13 10 8 6 19 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 2 1 3 3 6 -2 -5 -3 -5 -5 0 -1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 32 41 40 39 36 19 354 22 352 348 352 305 300 200 234 220 238 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.2 30.0 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 158 163 170 169 165 167 172 170 172 170 168 166 169 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 156 158 163 170 169 165 167 172 167 170 160 153 152 150 134 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 72 71 75 74 74 75 75 76 80 82 81 75 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 15 17 19 21 24 29 29 33 38 44 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 12 7 9 21 20 42 42 36 26 37 36 65 77 121 147 200 MB DIV 33 80 123 64 40 57 79 101 64 61 62 71 63 89 146 167 82 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 0 -1 0 -1 1 1 -3 -1 3 4 9 5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 138 167 212 199 197 178 367 324 262 303 348 168 78 114 314 403 356 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 7 10 8 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 34 36 49 76 68 77 46 74 57 82 117 113 101 157 111 132 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 15. 14. 18. 21. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 36. 47. 61. 65. 69. 70. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 65.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 10.2% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 9.1% 15.6% Logistic: 2.3% 9.0% 3.1% 1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 5.0% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 17.2% Consensus: 1.6% 7.2% 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 3.2% 5.2% 17.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 53 58 66 77 91 95 99 100 105 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 45 52 57 65 76 90 94 98 99 104 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 35 42 49 54 62 73 87 91 95 96 101 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 29 36 43 48 56 67 81 85 89 90 95 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT