* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 42 48 59 67 73 84 96 103 102 104 107 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 36 42 48 59 67 73 84 96 103 102 104 107 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 54 65 74 81 83 86 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 30 26 21 21 11 15 9 13 9 10 12 6 12 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 2 2 3 2 3 0 -2 0 0 -7 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 29 31 46 48 42 31 13 18 18 349 3 301 274 187 241 245 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 161 165 165 163 165 170 171 171 171 169 166 166 170 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 161 161 165 165 163 165 169 167 166 169 157 150 147 149 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 8 7 8 6 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 5 2 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 70 72 73 71 72 74 78 81 82 79 77 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 19 21 22 26 30 32 32 36 40 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 13 5 4 3 16 37 54 49 39 45 42 60 66 105 133 200 MB DIV 30 52 116 100 54 67 52 96 79 60 117 86 95 91 117 134 119 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -6 2 9 9 4 10 8 2 LAND (KM) 68 170 201 220 215 212 282 346 277 284 354 301 122 56 169 276 401 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 32 37 52 67 71 58 66 59 67 94 124 101 122 138 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 4. 7. 8. 12. 17. 18. 16. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 29. 37. 43. 54. 66. 73. 72. 74. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 64.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.2% 6.5% 5.0% 3.5% 7.3% 8.8% 15.7% Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 4.0% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 1.7% Consensus: 1.3% 6.0% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2.9% 4.7% 10.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/22/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 36 42 48 59 67 73 84 96 103 102 104 107 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 58 66 72 83 95 102 101 103 106 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 55 63 69 80 92 99 98 100 103 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 48 56 62 73 85 92 91 93 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT