* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 43 48 55 62 67 76 84 94 97 97 100 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 43 48 55 62 67 76 84 94 94 94 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 32 37 43 49 55 62 69 71 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 29 31 25 21 13 13 15 18 17 14 9 4 11 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 1 1 3 1 3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 32 30 31 46 55 41 42 5 16 354 350 338 334 245 204 247 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 162 161 170 163 163 164 170 172 171 170 171 167 167 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 158 162 161 170 163 161 160 167 167 165 164 157 151 150 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 67 66 66 66 68 71 69 71 72 74 77 83 79 74 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 14 17 18 21 22 26 28 28 32 850 MB ENV VOR 29 19 12 6 5 1 14 27 47 45 41 23 35 29 49 63 88 200 MB DIV 70 31 47 93 95 52 50 66 63 46 62 53 82 90 54 90 171 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -4 0 4 0 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 56 106 196 224 214 200 253 330 280 247 301 352 260 88 30 205 313 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 12 12 11 10 11 10 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 25 34 39 72 66 83 49 78 60 74 94 113 113 127 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 25. 32. 37. 46. 54. 64. 67. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 13.3% Logistic: 1.0% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 2.7% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% Consensus: 1.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 1.2% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/22/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 37 43 48 55 62 67 76 84 94 94 94 97 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 36 42 47 54 61 66 75 83 93 93 93 96 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 39 44 51 58 63 72 80 90 90 90 93 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 37 44 51 56 65 73 83 83 83 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT