* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 51 58 66 75 82 93 105 109 115 113 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 51 58 66 75 82 93 105 109 111 109 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 34 35 39 46 56 66 76 89 98 97 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 23 27 28 16 19 9 11 7 11 13 9 6 7 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -2 1 5 8 5 0 2 -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 25 26 32 36 49 68 50 41 10 318 307 323 313 281 198 207 215 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.1 30.2 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 158 159 161 166 162 161 163 167 171 172 171 170 170 166 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 160 158 159 161 166 160 160 161 162 165 167 168 156 157 152 157 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 9 7 8 6 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 64 64 66 68 69 68 68 69 75 75 78 79 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 13 14 16 20 20 24 29 32 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 16 19 6 -1 2 10 39 48 43 47 38 48 48 65 82 200 MB DIV 45 58 36 37 72 66 78 29 43 58 55 92 87 128 95 104 114 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 1 -2 0 -3 -2 1 1 6 9 6 LAND (KM) 40 94 169 229 282 257 288 327 257 224 252 326 344 189 68 45 323 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 12 12 10 12 12 9 9 11 10 7 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 23 34 36 68 68 82 57 63 72 58 100 121 107 101 132 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 45. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 13. 18. 20. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 28. 36. 45. 52. 63. 75. 79. 85. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 62.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.87 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.9% 5.9% 4.7% 3.2% 7.0% 8.2% 14.5% Logistic: 1.8% 4.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.4% Consensus: 1.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.8% 1.1% 2.5% 3.2% 6.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/21/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 51 58 66 75 82 93 105 109 111 109 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 57 65 74 81 92 104 108 110 108 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 41 46 53 61 70 77 88 100 104 106 104 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 38 45 53 62 69 80 92 96 98 96 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT