* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/21/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 43 49 53 58 63 70 79 92 101 112 116 118 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 32 35 42 49 52 58 62 70 73 86 95 99 104 105 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 31 32 34 35 36 38 42 49 53 64 76 82 87 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 21 20 28 23 22 20 17 7 11 9 8 7 7 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -6 -3 -1 -4 3 6 6 0 1 -5 -3 -4 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 5 18 20 24 27 43 33 51 14 345 264 264 255 220 200 170 234 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.5 30.0 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 169 159 156 159 163 166 163 160 171 173 172 170 168 162 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 169 159 156 159 163 164 162 159 171 173 165 162 150 143 144 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 68 67 68 69 72 71 72 69 72 73 74 66 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 16 17 20 23 28 31 40 43 46 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 31 25 19 14 -3 3 1 42 35 50 39 63 64 90 100 200 MB DIV 43 32 48 51 54 109 88 56 23 58 67 85 81 101 94 66 56 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 4 6 7 9 14 LAND (KM) 219 88 -11 22 56 189 224 267 280 217 15 185 157 44 31 128 228 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.6 19.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.2 61.4 62.6 63.8 66.0 68.1 70.0 72.2 74.6 77.1 79.7 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 12 13 14 14 11 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 27 22 18 31 45 73 67 79 67 88 72 96 115 95 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 9. 12. 18. 20. 29. 31. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 19. 23. 28. 33. 40. 49. 62. 71. 82. 86. 88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 59.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.0% 5.9% 4.9% 3.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 14.1% 7.0% 2.9% 2.2% 3.7% 6.6% 15.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 6.4% Consensus: 2.0% 8.9% 4.5% 2.6% 1.8% 3.5% 2.5% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/21/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 28 32 35 42 49 52 58 62 70 73 86 95 99 104 105 18HR AGO 30 29 27 31 34 41 48 51 57 61 69 72 85 94 98 103 104 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 40 47 50 56 60 68 71 84 93 97 102 103 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 40 46 50 58 61 74 83 87 92 93 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT