* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/21/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 35 42 49 55 62 64 71 83 93 102 109 114 119 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 35 42 49 55 62 64 71 83 93 102 109 114 111 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 39 41 46 53 64 77 89 100 107 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 30 31 20 22 29 19 22 11 13 9 3 10 4 3 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -11 -7 -3 -3 2 4 8 3 5 0 3 2 2 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 355 7 18 20 19 41 53 48 43 27 12 325 309 311 334 172 191 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 172 172 167 165 159 159 166 163 161 165 170 172 171 171 171 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 172 172 167 165 159 159 166 161 159 164 169 168 164 163 160 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 8 9 7 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 66 65 68 71 69 72 73 73 74 75 76 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 13 14 14 16 18 18 20 24 26 30 34 38 43 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 29 25 23 15 -3 1 -3 22 45 43 47 52 80 67 81 200 MB DIV 74 41 40 61 49 102 73 85 46 43 73 65 102 94 106 96 96 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 1 0 4 5 12 17 23 LAND (KM) 291 235 120 52 111 228 297 242 222 341 322 238 253 365 217 42 83 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 30 27 24 25 33 39 73 66 84 53 74 71 75 95 111 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -7. -5. -4. -2. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 13. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 32. 34. 41. 53. 63. 72. 79. 84. 89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 57.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.93 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.6% 6.1% 4.9% 3.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 9.3% 4.8% 1.3% 0.6% 1.4% 2.7% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% Consensus: 1.5% 6.5% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/21/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 35 42 49 55 62 64 71 83 93 102 109 114 111 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 41 48 54 61 63 70 82 92 101 108 113 110 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 37 44 50 57 59 66 78 88 97 104 109 106 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 43 50 52 59 71 81 90 97 102 99 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT