* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 52 57 61 62 64 74 81 88 93 100 106 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 45 52 57 61 62 64 74 81 88 93 100 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 39 41 44 46 50 57 65 71 76 83 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 32 29 22 25 21 19 19 18 13 11 13 19 7 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -10 -6 -1 -2 6 4 6 -1 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 353 356 5 16 18 19 46 42 45 16 21 344 345 342 8 16 134 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 168 170 165 165 161 160 162 161 161 164 171 171 171 168 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 164 168 170 165 165 161 158 157 160 161 162 168 167 164 157 161 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 63 62 64 68 72 71 75 74 76 80 82 80 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 13 13 13 15 15 15 19 20 22 24 28 33 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 25 30 23 7 11 -1 5 0 42 46 49 41 59 67 85 200 MB DIV 94 91 45 51 55 36 81 61 51 13 52 67 92 100 107 66 91 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -3 2 5 7 4 LAND (KM) 363 331 262 143 90 189 334 319 320 280 358 274 138 117 222 100 -14 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 10 9 12 13 11 9 8 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 41 30 27 25 28 45 50 70 69 92 52 83 93 87 67 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 15. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 32. 34. 44. 51. 58. 63. 70. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 56.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.7% 7.7% 6.3% 4.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 20.8% 13.2% 6.2% 2.6% 4.7% 4.5% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 4.0% Consensus: 2.7% 11.3% 7.1% 4.2% 2.3% 4.2% 1.7% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/21/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 45 52 57 61 62 64 74 81 88 93 100 84 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 50 55 59 60 62 72 79 86 91 98 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 46 51 55 56 58 68 75 82 87 94 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 38 43 47 48 50 60 67 74 79 86 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT