* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 55 61 64 63 65 74 80 92 98 105 106 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 34 37 44 49 52 52 54 62 69 81 80 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 34 36 39 42 44 46 51 56 65 75 78 87 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 29 31 19 30 20 29 17 17 13 10 13 10 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -9 -7 0 -1 2 -2 0 0 -6 0 -1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 351 7 12 13 29 28 39 47 34 43 18 322 321 326 294 285 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 30.0 30.4 29.9 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 172 172 170 152 151 156 161 167 163 160 161 171 173 168 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 168 172 172 170 152 150 155 159 165 160 157 158 168 173 159 172 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 7 9 7 9 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 67 66 65 68 68 71 70 71 74 76 75 78 77 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 15 17 17 22 25 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 34 34 38 30 24 16 9 3 24 30 30 51 50 57 59 200 MB DIV 72 104 100 49 42 74 108 72 69 53 47 52 53 94 110 76 92 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 2 2 0 -3 1 1 2 -2 2 8 13 7 LAND (KM) 398 278 196 80 -11 -22 111 150 144 124 146 284 256 64 109 108 43 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.7 59.1 60.3 61.4 63.3 65.2 66.7 68.3 69.8 71.5 73.2 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 57 41 29 28 31 18 17 31 43 58 58 72 80 65 96 69 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 43. 45. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 10. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 31. 34. 33. 35. 44. 50. 62. 68. 75. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 56.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.95 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.6% 9.7% 7.6% 5.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 39.2% 28.3% 12.6% 5.2% 9.1% 6.2% 9.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.8% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 4.9% 33.1% Consensus: 6.4% 19.9% 13.6% 6.8% 3.6% 6.4% 3.7% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/20/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 34 37 44 49 52 52 54 62 69 81 80 87 88 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 31 34 41 46 49 49 51 59 66 78 77 84 85 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 26 29 36 41 44 44 46 54 61 73 72 79 80 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 21 28 33 36 36 38 46 53 65 64 71 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT