* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 09/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 54 63 68 71 69 70 76 87 96 101 106 109 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 55 60 64 61 62 69 80 88 91 96 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 44 49 51 56 61 65 71 78 89 97 99 105 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 22 28 21 26 19 25 17 16 9 10 10 11 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -6 -8 -1 -4 5 0 4 -1 0 2 4 3 5 11 SHEAR DIR 341 359 2 4 12 29 33 46 39 50 6 1 315 308 306 323 284 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.1 29.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.4 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 168 165 171 172 168 150 155 158 161 165 160 163 165 173 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 168 165 171 172 168 150 154 156 157 162 157 161 162 173 163 158 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 66 67 64 64 69 70 73 72 76 75 75 76 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 11 14 15 15 17 17 17 20 23 26 28 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 39 33 34 39 20 25 10 19 8 34 33 52 46 74 69 200 MB DIV 40 90 125 109 56 91 62 105 47 71 47 68 51 107 93 98 79 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 3 3 0 1 0 1 6 8 11 15 22 LAND (KM) 494 406 311 226 133 25 22 154 226 220 211 267 223 63 79 67 -20 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.0 14.9 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.2 56.0 57.3 58.6 59.8 61.8 63.8 65.4 67.0 68.4 70.0 71.8 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 56 48 31 27 30 17 22 35 51 73 68 90 56 95 71 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 43. 45. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 24. 33. 38. 41. 39. 40. 46. 57. 66. 71. 76. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 54.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 09/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.93 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 26.7% 12.6% 8.8% 6.3% 10.1% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 35.1% 64.5% 55.7% 37.7% 16.5% 23.8% 20.5% 19.2% Bayesian: 9.5% 9.4% 18.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.8% 6.6% 25.3% Consensus: 17.8% 33.6% 29.0% 16.6% 8.2% 11.9% 12.4% 14.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 09/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 09/20/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 51 55 60 64 61 62 69 80 88 91 96 71 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 46 50 55 59 56 57 64 75 83 86 91 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 43 48 52 49 50 57 68 76 79 84 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 34 39 43 40 41 48 59 67 70 75 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT