* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 40 44 48 52 51 51 54 57 59 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 28 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 29 34 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 14 7 10 6 6 10 2 8 5 1 6 6 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 0 -4 -4 0 -4 -1 -5 3 0 -4 1 0 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 279 311 335 316 337 341 24 324 356 307 70 221 167 196 151 162 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 171 167 164 127 126 121 120 120 119 119 121 123 123 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 150 149 146 143 110 108 104 102 102 101 100 102 103 104 100 99 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 11 10 12 11 12 10 10 7 6 3 3 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 54 54 54 60 64 66 69 68 64 58 54 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 8 8 5 4 3 2 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -19 -12 -4 5 15 4 15 1 3 9 22 24 34 17 9 -12 200 MB DIV 1 1 24 3 -16 30 2 43 14 43 -13 37 -8 11 -15 6 -3 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -18 -11 -5 -7 1 -4 -1 -5 -3 1 0 -1 -4 -1 2 LAND (KM) -58 -136 -228 -331 -434 -613 -508 -404 -314 -219 -81 44 6 -9 96 183 256 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.8 99.7 100.7 101.7 103.7 105.5 107.2 108.9 110.6 112.1 113.4 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 27. 26. 26. 29. 32. 34. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.5 98.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.5% 8.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 23.3% 18.0% 8.2% 2.5% 10.1% 12.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 12.0% 8.8% 5.2% 0.8% 3.4% 7.0% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/14/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 28 34 36 37 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 26 32 34 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 25 28 23 29 31 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 19 22 17 23 25 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT