* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/14/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 37 42 48 50 54 56 57 58 60 61 62 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 27 31 32 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 34 29 33 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 19 14 6 12 13 5 11 7 6 7 2 8 8 11 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 -2 1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 301 330 290 257 324 292 360 332 353 15 83 73 101 100 118 96 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.0 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 169 171 167 151 127 127 127 126 127 127 127 126 125 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 146 151 147 132 111 110 109 109 109 109 109 108 108 107 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 13 9 13 8 11 7 8 3 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 55 59 60 56 59 62 65 66 67 67 67 65 66 61 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 8 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -19 -14 -3 0 12 10 12 2 12 12 15 18 33 16 16 10 200 MB DIV -10 -5 -6 8 27 33 45 19 38 21 23 2 8 23 3 5 4 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -6 -5 -4 -11 -2 -2 -4 2 -1 0 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 106 36 -53 -131 -231 -448 -512 -375 -245 -137 11 8 -38 66 201 294 378 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.1 98.0 98.8 99.8 102.0 103.9 105.8 107.5 109.2 110.9 112.4 113.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 25 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 12. 17. 23. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. 36. 37. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.3 96.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/14/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.3% 9.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 33.5% 28.0% 17.7% 5.9% 17.3% 10.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 4.2% 16.6% 12.8% 8.7% 2.0% 5.8% 6.7% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/14/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/14/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 27 31 32 35 36 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 26 27 23 27 28 31 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 24 25 21 25 26 29 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 18 19 15 19 20 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT