* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 32 35 37 45 48 51 55 57 59 61 61 64 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 27 27 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 30 28 28 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 20 13 5 15 9 15 11 6 9 10 4 10 4 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 -2 3 -4 0 -6 0 -3 -4 2 -5 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 315 288 308 337 325 304 322 345 354 8 352 113 148 112 101 103 101 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.7 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 167 171 171 164 127 127 126 126 126 126 126 126 125 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 146 150 150 144 110 110 109 109 109 107 107 106 104 102 104 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 11 11 12 10 10 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 55 58 60 57 60 61 64 63 66 66 64 63 61 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 6 7 5 3 4 3 3 4 3 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -14 -20 -16 -3 11 11 15 16 12 12 22 22 26 26 23 12 200 MB DIV 1 -15 -14 -16 -10 36 20 38 0 30 0 32 5 26 5 -3 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -8 -5 -4 -21 -4 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 119 70 -11 -105 -184 -390 -566 -415 -295 -192 -45 37 -30 -32 -11 5 33 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.5 97.5 98.5 99.3 101.4 103.4 105.4 107.0 108.6 110.2 111.7 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 38 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 20. 23. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. 36. 39. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.6 95.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.5% 8.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 16.7% 11.3% 4.3% 1.3% 8.3% 11.8% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.9% 11.6% 7.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.8% 7.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/13/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 27 27 30 32 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 26 24 23 23 26 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 25 23 22 22 25 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 19 17 16 16 19 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT