* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/13/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 40 43 46 47 50 52 54 55 58 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 29 31 32 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 4 13 21 12 12 19 12 15 12 8 6 5 9 8 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 344 296 282 308 326 271 329 306 342 325 316 33 159 99 107 104 118 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.0 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 163 169 171 170 132 127 128 127 126 126 128 126 124 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 142 148 151 149 115 110 109 109 108 109 110 109 107 105 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 8 13 9 13 8 11 6 8 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 55 58 58 59 61 61 63 65 63 65 63 65 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -4 -16 -29 -20 0 13 15 13 21 21 24 24 33 32 29 29 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -18 -12 -9 19 42 9 -3 15 9 8 9 18 0 -7 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -9 -9 -7 -10 0 0 -3 0 1 6 3 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 120 81 36 -30 -132 -312 -537 -493 -369 -263 -116 0 -13 14 125 215 240 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.5 97.5 98.6 100.5 102.8 104.8 106.5 108.0 109.5 111.1 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 32 43 5 5 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.0 94.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 14.1% 9.9% 4.8% 1.4% 7.4% 7.3% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.8% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 2.5% 2.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/13/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 29 31 32 35 38 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 21 24 24 25 25 25 25 28 27 29 30 33 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 21 21 22 22 22 22 25 24 26 27 30 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT