* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/13/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 24 30 33 40 40 41 43 43 45 47 49 51 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 31 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 28 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 19 14 4 13 21 6 22 9 18 12 10 9 5 3 10 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 -4 -1 -3 0 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 311 346 296 281 308 286 304 319 333 330 337 328 112 73 99 112 103 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.3 29.7 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 161 161 169 171 164 127 128 128 128 128 127 128 126 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 139 140 147 153 144 110 110 109 109 109 109 111 108 108 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 8 11 10 12 9 10 8 8 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 59 54 59 56 59 59 59 62 64 63 62 61 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 8 6 8 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -25 -1 -20 -34 -6 3 13 23 13 23 14 28 35 39 36 30 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -3 -25 -18 -1 57 17 37 -6 24 6 15 14 9 -14 0 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -4 -10 -4 -15 -4 -5 0 -4 0 6 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 167 125 79 47 -26 -198 -416 -599 -450 -354 -214 -91 37 -59 62 194 252 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.5 95.3 96.2 97.2 99.2 101.5 103.6 105.6 107.2 108.8 110.4 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 30 31 40 5 5 2 4 3 3 4 2 2 2 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -6. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 13. 20. 20. 21. 23. 23. 25. 27. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.1 93.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 15.6% 12.3% 8.2% 2.2% 7.9% 3.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.3% 4.1% 2.7% 0.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/13/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 31 34 37 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 20 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 28 26 29 32 35 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 17 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 25 23 26 29 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT