* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/13/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 35 41 45 47 49 50 53 55 58 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 28 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 32 28 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 19 14 3 12 13 12 17 11 10 8 8 5 3 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 299 305 342 282 269 325 267 328 284 332 316 323 354 134 81 101 112 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 171 171 171 152 127 128 128 127 128 126 128 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 146 146 151 155 154 132 110 110 109 109 109 108 111 111 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 10 7 13 9 13 9 11 7 8 4 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 55 58 61 59 57 56 57 61 60 61 64 62 62 61 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -32 -26 1 -9 -26 2 10 3 27 22 19 15 35 38 21 36 200 MB DIV 16 -10 -11 12 -16 -9 18 30 -1 -1 14 10 5 16 3 -2 -15 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -7 -11 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 170 182 133 83 53 -96 -276 -510 -548 -421 -290 -155 -58 39 -40 120 281 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.6 94.5 95.2 96.1 98.1 100.0 102.4 104.4 106.2 107.9 109.5 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 34 32 34 12 5 5 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 38. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 33. 35. 38. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.1 92.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 26.9% 19.8% 9.8% 3.3% 10.1% 9.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 9.1% 6.6% 3.3% 1.1% 3.4% 3.2% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/13/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/13/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 28 33 35 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 29 26 31 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 25 22 27 29 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT