* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982022 08/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 35 41 49 53 57 58 62 64 65 68 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 15 13 2 18 1 18 7 11 5 1 9 4 5 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 -4 -1 -3 0 -4 1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 342 303 308 349 287 298 261 303 298 327 351 21 329 177 282 117 170 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.0 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 170 171 171 170 130 124 121 120 120 123 126 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 147 146 149 155 154 148 112 106 103 102 102 105 108 108 106 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 8 8 11 11 12 10 11 9 10 6 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 57 59 62 55 59 54 57 57 59 65 65 63 60 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -15 -36 -33 -4 -36 -3 0 14 5 13 35 6 23 31 49 44 200 MB DIV 8 9 -23 -12 4 -2 0 35 0 34 -10 22 1 37 5 28 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 -4 -21 -7 -4 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 138 162 167 117 69 -34 -211 -413 -615 -552 -445 -331 -233 -81 32 24 110 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.0 93.7 94.5 95.3 97.2 99.2 101.3 103.3 105.1 106.7 108.3 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 37 34 33 44 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 15. 21. 29. 33. 37. 38. 42. 44. 45. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.3 92.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982022 INVEST 08/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 31.4% 19.9% 8.4% 4.3% 17.9% 22.9% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 10.6% 6.7% 2.8% 1.4% 6.0% 7.6% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982022 INVEST 08/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982022 INVEST 08/12/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 34 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 29 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 24 25 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT