* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 68 66 63 51 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 68 66 63 51 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 63 58 52 45 45 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 35 18 12 8 4 3 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 15 10 0 -3 -2 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 179 184 150 174 151 37 333 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.6 11.0 9.5 9.1 8.3 10.1 12.5 11.9 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 72 68 64 62 66 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 70 66 62 60 64 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -53.2 -51.7 -49.1 -47.7 -46.9 -46.9 -47.3 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 1.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 5.9 4.8 4.0 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 68 78 77 79 81 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 52 58 56 52 41 33 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 187 257 286 321 307 335 272 211 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 64 43 94 108 20 28 30 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 95 46 10 -6 -8 8 11 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1318 1340 1379 1385 1400 1357 948 456 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 49.0 52.4 55.8 56.8 57.8 56.6 55.5 55.7 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.1 35.2 30.9 24.5 16.4 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 41 34 22 10 6 16 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 50 CX,CY: 21/ 45 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -37. -43. -47. -51. -55. -58. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -25. -32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 6. 4. -5. -16. -27. -40. -43. -45. -46. -45. -44. -43. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 19. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -4. -7. -19. -33. -48. -66. -72. -77. -83. -87. -93.-101.-106.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 49.0 35.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 68 66 63 51 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 70 68 65 53 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 61 49 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT