* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/14/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 38 37 36 37 39 41 43 45 47 48 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 37 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 17 16 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 281 284 292 273 287 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 142 144 146 137 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 127 130 132 125 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 10 10 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 54 55 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 10 13 9 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -16 -22 -16 -20 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 252 189 126 79 32 -29 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.3 19.7 19.3 18.8 18.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.0 92.8 92.8 92.9 93.5 94.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 16 18 19 15 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.8 93.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/14/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.5% 6.6% 5.9% 4.4% 7.7% 9.3% 11.9% Logistic: 3.9% 12.0% 9.4% 2.5% 0.9% 3.2% 4.7% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 7.2% 5.3% 2.8% 1.8% 3.7% 4.7% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/14/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/14/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 39 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 29 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT