* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/13/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 38 37 35 36 38 40 42 44 47 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 38 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 36 35 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 19 21 18 11 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 0 0 2 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 260 273 283 295 286 272 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 139 138 143 138 126 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 124 124 129 126 116 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 10 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 55 56 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 6 11 11 5 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -20 -28 -18 -16 -17 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 311 248 185 132 80 -13 -115 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 20.7 20.1 19.7 19.2 18.2 17.1 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 93.6 93.4 93.3 93.1 93.7 94.7 95.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 18 15 17 14 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.2 93.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.89 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.2% 7.4% 6.6% 4.8% 8.2% 9.6% 13.1% Logistic: 4.2% 10.0% 8.0% 1.5% 0.5% 2.8% 3.7% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 7.1% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% 3.7% 4.4% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/13/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 38 38 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 31 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT