* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/13/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 39 36 33 33 34 35 36 37 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 40 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 39 36 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 21 22 18 13 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 4 4 1 2 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 283 274 266 270 287 279 281 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 142 137 135 130 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 125 126 126 123 122 119 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 10 10 8 10 8 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 54 56 57 58 58 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 11 10 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 9 16 13 12 7 7 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -11 -13 -15 -14 -6 -6 -4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 312 319 328 309 257 146 49 -59 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.2 20.7 19.7 18.7 17.7 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.1 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.6 94.0 94.7 95.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 31 28 26 25 16 12 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.4 94.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.9% 5.8% 5.6% 4.0% 6.9% 7.8% 10.7% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/13/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 42 40 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 40 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 37 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 29 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT