* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/13/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 53 52 51 47 46 42 41 42 41 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 53 52 51 47 46 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 55 54 51 48 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 14 20 18 12 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 6 3 1 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 276 276 268 258 278 272 279 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 141 138 136 134 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 123 125 126 124 122 122 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 10 10 6 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 55 55 56 56 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 8 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 5 6 16 13 16 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -4 -13 -6 -22 -20 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 312 314 321 316 290 181 87 11 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.0 19.1 18.3 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.2 94.1 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.8 94.2 95.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 32 29 28 27 20 13 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -10. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.4 94.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 10.6% 7.4% 7.2% 5.1% 8.1% 9.2% 11.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 4.9% 3.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.9% 3.3% 4.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/13/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/13/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 53 52 51 47 46 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 49 48 44 43 29 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 45 41 40 26 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 34 33 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT