* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 56 53 52 49 46 44 44 43 43 45 47 50 51 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 56 56 53 52 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 57 58 58 57 53 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 20 13 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 4 2 2 0 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 275 282 280 275 279 293 275 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 142 142 143 138 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 121 125 125 127 124 121 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 10 7 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 55 55 58 59 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 0 4 8 21 14 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -5 5 -11 -10 -21 0 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 297 301 279 246 214 94 4 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.5 19.4 18.7 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.3 94.3 94.5 94.6 94.5 94.6 95.1 95.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 4 4 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 35 36 33 19 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 94.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 14.8% 9.5% 8.9% 6.3% 9.4% 10.3% 11.9% Logistic: 6.3% 16.3% 14.4% 6.9% 1.6% 3.2% 1.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.0% 10.4% 8.0% 5.4% 2.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/12/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 56 56 53 52 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 49 48 45 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 44 43 40 25 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 37 36 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT