* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/12/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 43 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 37 37 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 15 16 16 15 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 5 6 3 8 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 266 273 275 282 284 280 281 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 146 146 146 144 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 127 126 127 129 128 118 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 9 10 8 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 60 57 55 57 59 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 17 6 3 9 25 29 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 74 39 24 2 0 17 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 210 207 191 176 127 44 -30 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.0 20.0 19.5 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.0 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.1 96.6 97.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 2 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 41 47 50 54 47 36 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 8. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 94.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.2% 8.7% 7.7% 5.7% 8.9% 9.4% 12.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.6% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 7.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% 3.5% 3.6% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/12/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 44 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 41 40 32 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 35 27 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 28 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT