* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL142022 10/12/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 44 43 40 39 39 39 40 40 41 43 44 47 47 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 44 43 40 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 13 17 18 16 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 3 5 2 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 245 283 284 286 281 283 290 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.2 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 146 147 147 147 145 136 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 129 130 128 128 128 119 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 9 10 7 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 69 63 59 57 57 60 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 23 23 15 16 15 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 83 79 52 32 -7 -12 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 184 196 186 155 96 62 -15 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.4 20.8 20.4 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.0 95.1 95.4 95.7 96.3 96.4 97.0 97.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 37 41 50 59 51 45 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.2 94.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.2% 10.7% 9.0% 6.6% 10.0% 10.7% 12.4% Logistic: 5.7% 26.0% 15.3% 6.5% 2.0% 3.9% 2.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 4.2% 15.1% 8.9% 5.3% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142022 KARL 10/12/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142022 KARL 10/12/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 44 43 40 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 39 36 30 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 33 30 24 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT