* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 10/11/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 47 48 46 47 47 48 48 49 51 52 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 47 48 46 47 40 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 46 49 50 49 48 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 7 7 15 16 19 15 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 0 2 0 -2 0 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 247 267 299 297 282 288 277 295 297 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 144 145 144 143 143 139 135 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 125 129 128 124 126 128 126 122 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 9 8 9 7 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 72 65 63 57 60 62 63 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 6 6 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 36 34 27 -10 -5 9 20 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 107 87 85 55 13 -6 -1 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 130 150 192 206 252 266 211 84 -21 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 1 3 5 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 21 24 32 37 37 32 25 15 13 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 16. 17. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 94.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 31.9% 23.8% 10.1% 7.4% 11.5% 13.1% 15.2% Logistic: 13.6% 58.0% 33.0% 10.7% 5.7% 23.8% 27.0% 32.3% Bayesian: 15.0% 27.1% 5.3% 4.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.9% Consensus: 11.8% 39.0% 20.7% 8.4% 4.6% 12.3% 13.5% 16.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 10/11/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 47 47 48 46 47 40 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 42 43 41 42 35 27 24 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 36 37 35 36 29 21 18 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 28 26 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT