* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 10/11/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 38 40 41 42 43 44 43 44 45 48 50 52 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 38 40 41 42 43 44 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 40 41 42 43 42 42 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 7 8 16 21 21 20 17 13 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 2 1 -1 -1 1 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 240 246 253 275 272 287 275 284 284 310 333 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 145 146 146 145 144 142 139 133 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 127 130 130 127 126 128 127 126 121 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 5 5 10 7 9 6 9 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 70 65 58 59 61 60 62 64 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 39 38 28 3 -10 -5 4 15 18 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 74 98 78 61 23 0 -17 -4 0 3 -10 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 7 5 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 133 154 190 188 238 281 255 168 47 -61 -107 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 2 2 4 5 6 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 19 23 33 38 44 35 32 19 15 14 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 15. 18. 20. 22. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 17.9% 10.9% 8.7% 6.2% 10.3% 11.1% 13.6% Logistic: 15.8% 63.0% 41.6% 16.0% 8.1% 24.7% 20.1% 24.4% Bayesian: 11.2% 17.8% 3.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% Consensus: 10.9% 32.9% 18.8% 9.5% 5.2% 11.9% 10.5% 13.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 10/11/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 38 40 41 42 43 44 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 36 37 38 39 38 30 25 23 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 32 24 19 17 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 24 25 26 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT