* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 10/11/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 30 32 34 37 42 45 48 49 52 52 50 47 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 14 10 8 8 11 9 11 10 12 18 32 50 63 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 3 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -10 -5 SHEAR DIR 211 232 225 223 221 246 273 287 305 273 253 245 224 233 229 241 252 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.3 29.8 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 149 146 144 136 132 134 139 142 146 156 165 142 139 139 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 137 131 127 120 118 121 127 131 134 145 151 129 126 125 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 8 7 8 6 7 7 7 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 70 70 65 59 58 59 59 59 58 55 50 48 55 63 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 43 45 49 48 26 38 37 54 46 56 37 49 56 53 7 -35 200 MB DIV 78 72 69 81 85 41 9 2 25 37 62 60 36 51 64 73 48 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 3 5 13 15 LAND (KM) 81 124 88 56 46 -23 -105 -250 -193 -85 -90 -95 15 -37 -253 -526 -351 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.0 20.9 20.4 19.6 18.9 18.6 19.0 20.0 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.0 95.8 96.4 96.7 97.4 98.0 99.1 100.2 101.5 102.9 104.3 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 5 4 3 5 7 6 7 7 9 8 10 12 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 26 42 42 36 18 8 6 11 11 12 17 26 15 12 11 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. -0. -6. -14. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 27. 27. 25. 22. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.0% 8.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 34.8% 23.2% 7.2% 1.8% 5.9% 4.7% 3.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 4.9% 16.5% 11.0% 5.1% 0.7% 2.0% 4.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 10/11/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 10/11/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 22 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT