* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 09/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 58 68 74 84 89 93 92 88 85 77 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 58 68 74 84 89 93 92 88 85 77 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 60 70 77 75 71 65 58 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 9 16 16 19 7 7 5 7 11 18 22 28 32 37 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -5 -8 -6 -3 -8 -6 -4 -1 -4 1 3 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 32 15 352 332 279 259 307 289 273 229 219 232 238 250 259 259 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.4 25.1 24.6 22.4 21.0 20.6 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 124 125 124 124 122 123 125 118 107 103 90 84 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 96 97 97 97 97 96 98 101 97 90 88 79 75 73 72 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -56.8 -56.8 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -56.8 -56.6 -56.2 -56.5 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 49 49 50 49 51 53 57 58 61 57 59 54 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 14 18 20 19 23 24 27 28 30 32 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -68 -60 -53 -43 -34 -25 -8 -12 -1 -8 2 12 43 64 77 100 200 MB DIV -7 2 0 0 -13 6 -10 7 14 15 19 30 40 18 -5 -6 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 3 0 -1 -4 -1 0 3 8 4 3 -14 -23 -30 -41 LAND (KM) 1155 1155 1159 1164 1183 1221 1258 1301 1297 1254 1191 1180 1291 1488 1598 1297 1036 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.1 37.7 37.4 37.1 37.3 38.1 39.6 41.4 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.4 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.6 44.6 44.4 44.1 43.8 43.2 42.1 40.3 37.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 7 10 12 14 15 16 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 13. 17. 19. 22. 22. 22. 23. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 33. 43. 49. 60. 64. 68. 67. 63. 60. 52. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 38.0 45.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.4% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 4.6% 5.4% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% 3.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 09/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 47 58 68 74 84 89 93 92 88 85 77 73 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 44 55 65 71 81 86 90 89 85 82 74 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 39 50 60 66 76 81 85 84 80 77 69 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 40 50 56 66 71 75 74 70 67 59 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT