* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 08/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 55 65 74 80 87 89 90 89 84 78 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 55 65 74 80 87 89 90 89 84 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 46 54 62 68 75 77 74 69 61 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 13 17 16 13 8 7 8 10 18 22 25 32 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -3 -6 -6 -7 -6 -8 -5 -3 -5 4 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 329 9 30 9 348 306 274 247 295 274 234 220 208 223 232 236 247 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.3 24.5 23.3 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 124 124 124 126 126 124 126 125 115 108 102 93 89 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 97 96 96 97 98 99 97 100 102 95 90 86 79 75 72 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -56.0 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -56.8 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 50 50 50 52 53 57 59 60 61 56 50 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 12 14 16 19 19 22 24 27 30 30 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -72 -65 -60 -56 -44 -32 -26 -13 -19 -8 1 22 50 94 125 109 200 MB DIV 0 -3 1 1 -6 -8 6 17 3 5 32 9 34 18 8 10 -6 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 1 4 1 0 -1 0 2 3 5 0 -17 -26 -35 -31 LAND (KM) 1139 1123 1122 1117 1122 1150 1174 1203 1231 1221 1180 1178 1255 1401 1561 1682 1754 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.2 37.9 37.6 37.4 37.7 38.7 40.0 41.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 45.7 45.5 45.4 45.3 45.1 45.2 45.2 45.0 44.6 43.6 41.8 39.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 8 10 11 12 10 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 17. 19. 22. 23. 22. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 30. 40. 49. 55. 62. 64. 65. 64. 59. 53. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.9 46.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.5% 6.0% 2.7% 0.9% 6.5% 7.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 08/31/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 46 55 65 74 80 87 89 90 89 84 78 74 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 42 51 61 70 76 83 85 86 85 80 74 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 45 55 64 70 77 79 80 79 74 68 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 45 54 60 67 69 70 69 64 58 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT