* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 08/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 53 62 71 75 81 87 91 87 85 78 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 53 62 71 75 81 87 91 87 85 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 46 54 60 65 70 76 77 71 63 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 15 12 18 17 14 11 10 12 16 18 25 36 44 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -6 -4 -8 -5 -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 1 2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 323 334 12 29 8 321 301 299 307 289 263 236 231 243 250 274 272 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.7 25.3 23.7 22.3 21.5 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 124 124 125 124 126 123 122 124 121 109 98 91 87 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 100 99 97 97 97 97 99 97 98 101 101 94 85 80 78 75 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -56.2 -56.8 -56.7 -57.2 -57.2 -57.6 -57.4 -57.3 -57.2 -57.0 -56.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 52 51 51 52 50 53 54 57 57 55 54 57 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 10 12 15 17 17 19 23 27 27 30 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -70 -66 -56 -50 -49 -29 -17 -19 0 0 9 14 56 76 94 200 MB DIV 27 4 -6 8 10 -16 -1 -20 6 -4 17 30 13 21 26 -1 13 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 -1 -2 -1 2 3 3 0 -14 -31 -24 LAND (KM) 1154 1140 1143 1142 1137 1155 1188 1230 1297 1350 1372 1386 1452 1591 1682 1304 896 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.1 37.9 37.7 37.3 37.1 37.5 38.6 40.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 46.2 45.9 45.7 45.6 45.2 44.9 44.4 43.8 43.1 42.0 40.2 37.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 4 7 11 15 17 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 14. 18. 22. 20. 22. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 28. 37. 46. 50. 56. 62. 66. 62. 60. 53. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.5 46.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 9.5% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 5.2% 5.7% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.7% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 08/31/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 45 53 62 71 75 81 87 91 87 85 78 74 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 41 49 58 67 71 77 83 87 83 81 74 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 43 52 61 65 71 77 81 77 75 68 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 42 51 55 61 67 71 67 65 58 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT