* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/17/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 29 34 46 48 52 52 54 56 60 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 24 25 26 31 43 45 49 49 51 53 57 59 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 26 30 34 38 41 41 40 38 37 39 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 8 6 8 6 9 15 21 27 31 21 25 12 8 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 0 6 10 10 SHEAR DIR 213 222 239 243 185 160 109 111 105 95 88 73 62 47 308 259 225 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 29.2 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 155 157 141 146 139 137 148 141 141 143 143 140 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 136 148 150 135 141 136 134 145 134 131 137 138 136 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 7 6 7 5 6 4 4 3 4 4 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 78 76 75 77 77 83 86 86 86 85 83 82 82 79 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 7 5 8 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 82 80 76 87 112 99 104 66 48 47 46 78 74 89 95 125 200 MB DIV 40 49 59 52 65 56 76 91 80 92 139 148 181 151 146 96 116 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -1 4 -2 4 4 6 6 7 2 -4 0 4 -1 16 LAND (KM) 105 0 -91 -185 -167 -100 24 133 308 494 599 657 601 454 283 138 162 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.1 16.6 15.8 14.7 13.6 12.6 12.0 11.6 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.2 89.1 90.2 91.2 93.3 95.3 97.5 99.5 101.4 102.4 102.8 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 9 4 1 6 8 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 8 4 12 11 8 10 44 33 32 34 25 20 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -2. -6. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 9. 14. 26. 28. 32. 32. 34. 36. 40. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.8 87.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 19.1% 7.4% 4.1% 2.1% 18.3% 47.7% 76.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 33.2% Consensus: 0.7% 6.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 6.1% 16.1% 36.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/17/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 24 25 26 31 43 45 49 49 51 53 57 59 60 61 18HR AGO 20 19 19 22 23 24 29 41 43 47 47 49 51 55 57 58 59 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 21 26 38 40 44 44 46 48 52 54 55 56 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT