* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 23 27 34 43 49 53 53 53 50 51 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 24 26 26 27 35 39 39 39 37 37 38 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 23 26 26 27 33 37 39 36 32 29 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 12 10 7 9 8 10 19 20 31 28 28 26 21 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 3 5 4 5 7 SHEAR DIR 259 227 222 244 255 189 130 136 113 107 97 86 71 57 29 329 245 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.3 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 142 153 148 140 142 136 145 145 144 140 144 146 142 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 134 146 141 134 138 133 144 143 138 130 141 143 141 134 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 8 6 8 5 6 4 3 3 3 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 74 73 76 76 81 85 87 85 84 85 84 84 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 81 76 66 101 104 105 98 81 41 48 53 69 75 84 116 200 MB DIV 42 48 58 28 31 42 61 58 66 82 71 144 154 173 196 130 127 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -1 3 0 4 8 0 6 7 0 -5 10 -4 12 LAND (KM) 103 106 21 -74 -180 -145 -79 -9 144 351 567 698 762 664 470 237 88 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.3 16.7 15.8 14.8 13.7 12.4 11.5 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.2 88.0 88.9 89.9 92.0 94.1 96.3 98.5 100.7 102.6 103.5 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 9 5 1 7 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 16 18 4 4 10 9 7 21 34 34 31 34 27 25 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 14. 23. 29. 33. 33. 33. 30. 31. 32. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.7 86.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 7.6% 29.2% 59.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.9% Consensus: 0.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.7% 9.9% 20.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/17/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 24 26 26 27 35 39 39 39 37 37 38 41 42 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 23 25 25 26 34 38 38 38 36 36 37 40 41 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 19 21 21 22 30 34 34 34 32 32 33 36 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT