* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/17/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 29 37 41 48 49 53 49 50 46 47 50 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 23 25 26 26 27 31 35 30 32 28 29 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 20 25 26 26 27 32 35 33 30 27 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 16 11 4 6 7 16 25 24 33 20 28 26 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -7 -5 -4 -3 0 0 1 6 6 3 6 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 267 278 265 253 270 170 189 132 95 113 105 96 85 58 43 329 307 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 29.6 28.1 27.0 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 134 139 162 139 126 137 141 144 148 145 148 146 140 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 122 124 131 155 133 121 135 140 143 142 135 142 139 135 130 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 7 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 77 75 71 71 71 76 79 81 83 83 84 81 80 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 6 9 6 7 6 9 6 6 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 77 75 78 80 74 102 103 116 93 52 53 44 88 69 95 95 200 MB DIV 73 40 36 43 38 56 39 61 75 95 101 123 146 121 124 80 72 700-850 TADV 2 -4 1 0 -3 2 -4 3 -7 11 10 13 5 -4 -3 -6 -21 LAND (KM) 100 184 124 34 -15 -83 -36 -123 -47 188 445 609 686 643 518 423 426 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.2 17.5 16.6 15.4 13.9 12.8 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.6 86.5 87.3 88.3 90.4 92.8 95.4 98.3 100.9 103.2 104.6 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 13 13 14 14 12 6 1 6 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 13 13 16 9 11 1 7 12 22 30 34 29 21 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -4. -4. -6. -3. -9. -9. -14. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 21. 28. 29. 33. 29. 30. 26. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.8 85.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 14.6% 6.5% 2.8% 1.0% 6.5% 16.0% 44.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 5.4% Consensus: 0.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.3% 5.3% 16.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/17/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 23 25 26 26 27 31 35 30 32 28 29 32 34 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 21 23 24 24 25 29 33 28 30 26 27 30 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 17 19 20 20 21 25 29 24 26 22 23 26 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT