* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 30 36 42 47 49 49 48 48 49 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 26 27 31 32 30 27 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 16 11 14 5 13 10 9 23 25 34 31 33 31 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 7 3 3 8 6 5 1 SHEAR DIR 240 262 275 259 250 243 192 162 116 94 114 99 97 79 68 12 314 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.6 29.1 27.3 27.1 28.2 28.0 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 133 145 154 129 127 140 137 146 149 144 147 146 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 123 122 124 137 147 123 122 136 134 143 145 134 141 142 136 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 6 6 8 6 8 6 7 4 4 4 4 4 8 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 78 78 73 72 73 73 78 82 83 81 81 82 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 78 77 84 73 92 106 120 116 99 74 66 62 70 60 63 200 MB DIV 97 71 31 54 42 54 51 51 71 73 103 70 149 134 147 124 101 700-850 TADV 8 -1 -3 2 0 -3 9 3 -3 -3 8 14 15 11 -2 1 -12 LAND (KM) 7 78 153 131 46 -116 -22 -27 -177 -8 225 451 624 740 651 492 316 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.4 18.0 17.4 16.6 15.3 14.0 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.0 85.8 86.6 87.4 89.3 91.5 94.0 96.7 99.2 101.5 103.5 104.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 12 10 8 1 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 11 12 7 26 5 3 9 12 21 32 37 36 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 29. 28. 28. 29. 29. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.9 84.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 24.8% 11.1% 6.5% 3.2% 12.3% 21.9% 55.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 10.5% Consensus: 1.1% 8.7% 3.7% 2.2% 1.1% 4.2% 7.4% 21.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/17/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 32 34 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 24 24 25 25 25 27 27 27 28 27 30 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 19 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 23 22 25 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT