* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/16/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 32 39 41 45 43 49 48 47 45 46 50 V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 27 29 27 30 37 30 28 30 37 36 34 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 24 24 24 23 26 29 27 27 31 34 35 33 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 18 20 12 8 11 18 20 24 24 31 34 42 30 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -4 -7 -4 -2 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 0 2 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 249 245 265 265 249 245 179 185 132 82 97 94 99 97 83 66 49 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.4 29.1 27.6 26.8 27.7 28.7 27.9 28.3 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 130 131 133 143 154 132 123 133 147 135 140 147 146 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 123 124 125 135 146 125 116 127 141 129 132 139 134 136 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 79 81 80 78 77 75 72 72 73 77 81 82 83 82 79 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 11 8 10 8 9 7 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 107 96 64 74 92 83 108 95 112 102 101 109 89 106 82 85 200 MB DIV 82 96 57 45 67 41 49 55 74 75 77 94 90 105 120 115 83 700-850 TADV 7 6 -1 -2 2 -4 3 -2 10 -10 1 -4 4 12 4 0 -2 LAND (KM) -41 26 92 168 84 -87 7 9 -130 -82 76 227 372 515 585 540 446 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.5 18.7 18.4 17.7 16.9 16.2 15.5 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.7 85.3 86.2 87.1 89.0 91.3 93.7 96.0 98.2 100.2 102.0 103.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 12 12 11 12 28 6 1 6 12 12 17 23 28 26 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. 0. -3. -3. -6. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 12. 19. 21. 25. 23. 29. 28. 27. 25. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.3 84.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 18.9% 8.2% 4.5% 1.8% 9.6% 14.0% 41.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 6.9% Consensus: 1.0% 6.7% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 3.3% 4.7% 16.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/16/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 27 29 27 30 37 30 28 30 37 36 34 33 34 37 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 22 25 32 25 23 25 32 31 29 28 29 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 18 21 28 21 19 21 28 27 25 24 25 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT