* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/16/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 26 30 36 39 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 33 28 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 29 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 28 26 26 27 30 32 33 32 30 28 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 21 19 24 20 16 6 10 12 25 27 34 32 29 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -8 -7 -8 -4 -6 -2 3 2 3 0 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 272 282 273 264 273 265 282 191 154 130 102 92 80 76 75 55 21 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.7 29.7 28.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 139 138 143 148 146 164 142 152 144 134 136 140 143 144 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 132 131 134 140 137 156 136 148 140 128 128 131 135 135 135 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 6 5 4 5 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 83 83 81 79 74 75 75 80 85 87 86 88 85 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 11 10 11 11 9 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 65 82 92 99 104 100 98 112 110 108 89 85 99 120 135 106 200 MB DIV 68 81 90 117 102 88 66 81 83 88 130 151 169 145 96 118 63 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 3 -1 4 4 6 2 6 12 6 2 -6 -3 -6 -11 LAND (KM) -108 -153 -127 -65 -13 43 -127 -112 -154 20 140 279 349 339 295 235 199 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.6 17.0 15.9 14.5 13.5 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 84.9 85.5 86.1 86.7 88.0 89.4 91.1 93.0 94.9 96.7 98.3 99.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 7 5 4 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 8 16 19 22 13 5 4 14 10 9 12 15 18 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. -0. -0. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 16. 19. 25. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 84.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 12.5% 5.6% 4.1% 1.0% 7.5% 14.9% 51.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.7% Consensus: 0.7% 4.2% 1.9% 1.4% 0.3% 2.5% 5.0% 17.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/16/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 33 28 27 27 29 29 29 30 29 29 32 34 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 29 24 23 23 25 25 25 26 25 25 28 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 24 19 18 18 20 20 20 21 20 20 23 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT