* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/16/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 28 34 38 45 48 47 49 51 51 51 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 30 28 27 27 29 31 33 34 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 31 33 34 34 32 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 26 22 22 16 13 5 10 10 12 21 25 37 30 25 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -3 -2 0 -4 -5 -4 -5 2 3 3 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 285 280 285 271 262 277 261 269 169 155 131 100 89 77 79 77 42 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.5 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 144 149 148 149 160 144 149 142 132 133 135 140 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 139 136 140 138 138 152 138 146 136 124 123 125 130 134 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 4 3 5 4 7 5 7 5 5 4 5 4 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 83 84 85 80 79 80 81 85 89 87 89 87 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 10 10 12 10 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 77 75 90 104 99 105 100 120 118 120 104 102 93 128 124 113 200 MB DIV 85 73 77 109 128 97 76 67 96 86 105 132 134 122 126 132 104 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 2 2 0 7 1 9 0 5 10 8 2 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) -108 -162 -221 -174 -124 -32 -14 -150 -145 -100 55 181 270 310 277 219 189 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.2 17.3 16.6 15.5 14.2 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.0 85.6 86.2 86.7 87.7 88.6 89.7 91.3 93.3 95.3 97.1 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 9 11 12 9 6 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 12 6 17 24 26 7 4 14 12 11 8 9 10 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 25. 28. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 84.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 14.4% 6.4% 7.8% 2.4% 12.9% 27.9% 71.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 7.7% Consensus: 1.0% 5.0% 2.2% 2.6% 0.8% 4.3% 9.4% 26.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/16/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/16/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 26 26 30 28 27 27 29 31 33 34 33 35 36 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 22 26 24 23 23 25 27 29 30 29 31 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 17 21 19 18 18 20 22 24 25 24 26 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT